Iraq

The insurgency

It is estimated that about 80 per cent of attacks have taken place in four of Iraq's 18 provinces:
Al-Anbar, Baghdad, Ninevah and Salah Al-Din in north-central Iraq -- the so-called 'Sunni triangle' (also nicknamed the 'triangle of death'). Acts of terrorism have been undertaken against coalition forces, civilians, oil pipelines and facilities, the infrastructure and transportation network, international aid agencies and organisations, Iraqi government officials and security personnel. There have been regular suicide bombings against coalition troops and Iraqi civilians. Common techniques used by the insurgents include RPG attacks, IEDs and Vehicle-Borne Explosive Devices (VBEDs). They have occasionally undertaken armed raids following a VBED or suicide bombing to maximise casualties. Civilians, military personnel and foreigners have been kidnapped, held for ransom or murdered. In April 2007, a suicide bomber managed to successfully strike a restaurant used by the Iraqi parliament in the normally secure 10sq km Green Zone (also known as the International Zone) in central Baghdad. There have been several suicide bombings using chlorine gas aimed at maximising casualties. The first attack on 28 January 2007 at Ramadi saw the suicide bomber use a truck filled with explosives and fitted with a tank filled with chlorine.

The remnants of Saddam Hussein's regime, Sunni and Shia militants, Iraqi nationalists, criminals and foreigners are involved in the insurgency. The identity of the foreign groups involved is not known, although there has been speculation that it could include some of the Middle East's more prominent Islamic groups, such as the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. Iraq's high unemployment rate has provided a strong recruiting ground for the insurgency campaign. There has been wide speculation that criminals have played a significant role in the insurgency campaign, particularly the kidnapping of civilians for ransom. In addition, the country has been identified by the UN International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) as a major transit point for drugs trafficking. It is believed that large quantities of heroin are now smuggled into Iraq from Afghanistan, which then flood Europe and Asia.

There are more than 25 different militant groups operating in Iraq that aim to drive foreign troops out of the country and topple the US-backed Iraqi government. Some groups want to impose an Islamic government and Sharia law, while others aim to reintroduce a Ba’athist form of totalitarian government. Almost all the militant groups are trying to exacerbate tensions between country’s Sunni and Shia population in an attempt to engulf the country in civil war. The US Army has estimated the strength of the Iraqi insurgents to be 5,000-20,000, although some sources have estimated the number as high as 50,000. About 1,000 foreign fighters could be involved, mostly using Syria as a transit route. The US estimates that 90 per cent of all suicide bombings have been carried out by foreign fighters.

A sharp fall in insurgent activity in the Al-Anbar province in recent months has been attributed to the formation of anti-Jihadist groups like the Sunni Sahawat Al-Anbar (Awakening Council), which is reportedly being financed, armed and trained by the US, and has co-operated with coalition and Iraqi security forces to oust foreign and Islamic militants from the Al-Anbar province. Sahawat Al-Anbar (also known as the Anbar Salvation Council) was formed in late 2006 and has among its leadership more than 40 Sunni tribal leaders and its ranks are swelled with Nationalists and former members of the Ba'ath Party. The group's founder, Abdul Sittar Buzaigh Al-Rishawi, was killed by a roadside IED in September 2007 and is now led by his brother, Ahmed Buzaigh Al-Rishawi.

Major insurgent groups

The US has said that the insurgency campaign is partly being financed by missing funds belonging to the ousted Ba'ath Party, while other funds are being provided by individuals and Islamic organisations based in Saudi Arabia.

There remain concerns about the role of Syria and Iran in the insurgency campaign. The US has argued that some insurgents have launched attacks from across Syria's 605km border with Iraq. An Iraqi official recently claimed that about 50 per cent of attacks were undertaken by insurgents from Syria. The US and the UK continues to accuse Iran of backing Shia militant groups, such as the 10,000-strong Al-Badr Brigade and the Al-Mahdi Army, providing financial assistance, IED detonators, explosives and arms. There has been particular concern over the use of Explosively-Formed Penetrators (EFPs), sophisticated armour-piercing roadside bombs that can easily penetrate a tank or armoured vehicle. These are thought to have originated from Iran and have mostly been supplied to Shia groups. In January 2007, US troops detained five Iranian nationals in Iraq, which Tehran claimed were diplomats. Washington said that they were members of the Al-Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Most of the main Iranian-backed Shia groups have been more active in southern Iraq. After a rise in number of attacks in southern Iraq during mid-2007, the UK has reported a dramatic fall in incidents in recent months leading to a reduction in the British troop presence in the region.

A report conducted in late 2006 by the Iraq Study Group (ISG), which is composed of former American policy makers including former US Secretary of State James Baker, suggested that Washington should engage in dialogue with Iran and Syria in an attempt to help stabilise Iraq so that US forces can withdraw from the country by 2008. A regional security conference took place in Iraq during March 2007, which will included Iranian and Syrian representatives, but Washington's continued stand-off with Iran over its nuclear ambitions has dented any short-term prospects of dialogue between Washington and Tehran on Iraq.

The coalition's response to the guerrilla war has been to tighten security around military bases and government ministries. Coalition and Iraqi forces undertake regular patrols together and major counter-insurgency operations around the country. The coalition is in a position where it must be seen to win the counter-insurgency at all costs, particularly when some of the governments contributing to the coalition are faced with strong opposition to the war at home. There is a fear that a premature withdrawal or defeat could lead to a worsening of the sectarian violence and a civil war that would inevitably tear Iraq apart. Stability will also be key the country’s reconstruction. It is however unlikely that Iraq’s problems will be solved before Washington decides to withdraw its forces out of the country. Besides, the Iraqi government is keen to keep foreign forces in the country until its own security forces are fully trained.

When that time approaches, probably much later this decade, it is possible that the US will look at maintaining some kind of major military presence in the country. This could involve making USAF aircraft available to provide close air support (CAS) to the IAF and other security forces, or maintaining an overwatch role where military advisors and a much reduced number of troops will provide train and help shape Iraqi military tactics and doctrine for combatting the insurgents.

There are currently concerns over Turkey's threats of conducting major operations in northern Iraq, where up to 3,000 members of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (Partiya Karkerên Kurdistan -- PKK) are based in the Qandil mountains. The PKK has engaged the Turkish authorities in an armed campaign since the 1970s, initially in an attempt to create an independent Kurdistan that would encompass parts of Turkey, Iraq and Syria but has been seeking autonomy for the Kurdish minority population in south-eastern Turkey since the 1990s. Ankara regularly undertakes airstrikes in northern Iraq, while Turkish troops conduct cross-border incursions to target PKK fighters and camps. More than 30,000 people have been killed since the start of the PKK's armed campaign, while 111 Turkish troops were killed in the first six months of 2007. The number of PKK dead is likely to be far higher.

Following a spate of engagements with the PKK during 2007, the Turkish parliament authorised military action in October following a PKK cross-border raid that resulted in the death of 16 Turkish soldiers, leading to protests from the US who fears that an escalation of the conflict will destablise northern Iraq, which has been under Kurdish control since the international community gave the Iraqi Kurds self-determination in the early 1990s. Washington additionally fears that military action by its NATO ally will threaten the 300,000 barrels of Iraqi oil that are transported by a 960km pipeline from northern Iraq's Kirkuk oilfields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, further forcing up world oil prices. At the time of writing, Turkey had undertaken a series of major airstrikes in northern Iraq and continues to maintain a strong military presence on the border in preparation for further operations against the PKK. Ankara has called on the US and the Iraqi government to expel the PKK from northern Iraq, destroy its camps and arrest the group's leaders.

Last revision: December 2007